Known Unknowns vs. Unknown Unknowns

Attribute	Known Unknowns	Unknown Unknowns
Definition	Information that is recognized to be missing or incomplete	Information that is not even known to be missing
Identification	Can be identified and acknowledged	Cannot be identified or acknowledged until they become known
Impact	Can be planned for and managed	Can be highly disruptive and unpredictable
Risk	Can be assessed and mitigated	Difficult to assess and mitigate due to their unknown nature

Definition

Known unknowns and unknown unknowns are terms used in risk management and decision-making to categorize different types of uncertainties. Known unknowns refer to risks or uncertainties that are recognized and can be identified, but their exact outcomes are still uncertain. On the other hand, unknown unknowns are risks that are not even known or considered, making them the most challenging to deal with.

Attributes of Known Unknowns

Known unknowns have several distinct attributes that set them apart from unknown unknowns. Firstly, known unknowns are risks that are acknowledged and understood to some extent. This means that there is awareness of the potential impact and likelihood of these risks occurring. Secondly, known unknowns can be analyzed and assessed using available information and data. This allows for some level of preparation and planning to mitigate the risks associated with known unknowns. Thirdly, known unknowns are typically included in risk management strategies and contingency plans, making them more manageable compared to unknown unknowns.

Challenges of Known Unknowns

Despite being recognized and understood to some extent, known unknowns still pose challenges in risk management. One of the main challenges is the uncertainty surrounding the exact outcomes of these risks. While the risks are known, the specific impact and timing of these risks can still be unpredictable. This uncertainty can make it difficult to develop effective strategies to address known unknowns. Additionally, known unknowns may evolve over time, requiring continuous monitoring and reassessment to ensure that risk management strategies remain relevant and effective.

Strategies for Dealing with Known Unknowns

There are several strategies that can be employed to effectively manage known unknowns. One approach is to conduct thorough risk assessments and scenario planning to identify potential outcomes and develop response strategies. This can help organizations anticipate and prepare for known unknowns, reducing the impact of these risks. Another strategy is to establish clear communication channels and reporting mechanisms to ensure that relevant information about known unknowns is shared across the organization. This can help facilitate timely decision-making and response to known unknowns.

Attributes of Unknown Unknowns

Unknown unknowns present a different set of attributes compared to known unknowns. Firstly, unknown unknowns are risks that are not even considered or recognized by individuals or organizations. This makes them the most challenging type of risk to deal with, as there is no awareness or understanding of these risks. Secondly, unknown unknowns are often referred to as "black swan" events, as they are rare and unexpected occurrences that have a significant impact. These risks can have far-reaching consequences that are difficult to predict or prepare for. Thirdly, unknown unknowns can emerge suddenly and without warning, catching organizations off guard and requiring immediate action.

Challenges of Unknown Unknowns

Dealing with unknown unknowns presents several unique challenges for organizations. One of the main challenges is the lack of awareness and understanding of these risks. Since unknown unknowns are not even considered, organizations may be ill-prepared to respond to these risks when they arise. This can lead to significant disruptions and losses for the organization. Additionally, unknown unknowns can be difficult to detect and anticipate, making it hard to develop effective strategies to mitigate these risks. The unpredictable nature of unknown unknowns can also make it challenging to recover from the impact of these risks.

Strategies for Dealing with Unknown Unknowns

While unknown unknowns are inherently difficult to manage, there are some strategies that organizations can employ to better prepare for these risks. One approach is to foster a culture of innovation and creativity within the organization, encouraging employees to think outside the box and consider potential risks that may not have been previously identified. This can help uncover hidden risks and vulnerabilities that could lead to unknown unknowns. Another strategy is to establish robust monitoring and early warning systems to detect emerging risks and trends that may indicate the presence of unknown unknowns. By staying vigilant and proactive, organizations can improve their ability to respond to these risks effectively.